Insight into the Properties of the UK Power Consumption Using a Linear Regression and Wavelet Transform Approach

In this paper, the relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), air temperature variations and power consumption is evaluated using the linear regression and Wavelet Coherence (WTC) approach on a 1971-2011 time series for the United Kingdom (UK). The results based on the linear regression approach indicate that some 66% variability of the UK electricity demand can be explained by the quarterly GDP variations, while only 11% of the quarterly changes of the UK electricity demand are caused by seasonal air temperature variations. WTC however, can detect the period of time when GDP and air temperature significantly correlate with electricity demand and the results of the wavelet correlation at different time scales indicate that a significant correlation is to be found on a long-term basis for GDP and on an annual basis for seasonal air-temperature variations. This approach provides an insight into the properties of the impact of the main factors on power consumption on the basis of which the power system development or operation planning and forecasting the power consumption can be improved.